MBS Day Ahead: Downtrend Taking Shape; Focusing on Stocks and Technicals

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As the new year continues, a common new year’s theme is in full effect: the stock/bond correlation.  Stocks and bonds frequently move together over short time frames (but not over super long time frames).  The beginning of any given year tends to see more of this correlated movement, and 2017 has been no exception.  

The current trading day begins with bond yields having moved nicely lower with stocks overnight.  In the bigger picture, a clear downtrend is shaping up for 10yr yields (teal lines below).  We can still keep an eye on the same technicals we’ve been following (2.34 and 2.29 are the nearest) to get a read on how the trend is progressing.  Yesterday saw another test of 2.34 but bonds bounced higher.  Now we’re right back to 2.34 to start today’s session.

Today brings the week’s first (traditionally) significant economic data, but it would be hard-pressed to move markets.  Jobless Claims are expected to come in at 255k.  Import Prices are seen at +0.7 and Export Prices at +0.1.  None of the above have been reliable market movers for years, so the focus likely remains on stocks, technicals, and tradeflows.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.5

103-01 : +0-07

Treasuries

10 YR

2.3376 : -0.0324

Pricing as of 1/12/17 8:26AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jan 12
8:30 Export prices mm (%)* Dec 0.1 -0.1
8:30 Import prices mm (%)* Dec 0.7 -0.3
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 255 235
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml)* w/e 2.118 2.112



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