This via Westpac:
- We expect a 0.1% rise in the Consumer Price Index for the June quarter
- This would bring the annual inflation rate down from 2.2% to 1.8%
- A well-publicised spike in vegetable prices has been offset by a fall in fuel prices. We expect other seasonal influences to be a slight negative on balance.
- Our forecast is below the Reserve Bank’s estimate of a 0.3% quarterly rise. However, the Reserve Bank was already expecting the recent pickup in inflation to recede over the coming year.
- We expect the OCR to remain unchanged until 2019, in contrast to market expectations of a rate hike by mid-2018.
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